Home
my days at the office
My warped views on poker, politics, and life
Recent Entries 
12th-Sep-2006 06:51 pm - College Football Picks, Week #3
2007 picture
Again, for entertainment purposes, here are my picks for week #3.

First, as usual, the Fox Family Picks:

Portland State @ #21 Cal (3:15 PM, Memorial Stadium, Berkeley); Partly Cloudy 65: No Line; Portland State is a Division 1-AA team. Note that the Vikings won at New Mexico.

Ball State +16.5 @ Purdue (1:00 PM CST, Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN); Sunny 80: Purdue played down to the level of Miami (OH) last week. Who knows how they'll play this week. I'm not betting this game....

#19 Nebraska +18.5 @ #4 USC (5:00 PM, L.A. Coliseum); Partly Cloudy, 75: Nebraska destroyed Nicholls State. I think that's a school in Louisiana. They dominated Louisiana Tech the prior week. USC beat up on Arkansas, who I think is overrated (see below). USC figures to win, but it's hard for me to believe they're 18.5 points better than Nebraska. However, Nebraska will be playing a team with a real offense and defense....If I was forced to bet, I'd put money on the Cornhuskers, but this is another game I'm not betting.

The Games I like:

Arkansas @ Vanderbilt +6 (11:30AM CDT, Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville); Sunny, 85: Arkansas looked horrible when they hosted USC. Vanderbilt has covered two straight games, at Michigan and at Alabama. I think the line should be even. I wouldn't be surprised if Vandy won the game.

#15 Oklahoma +4 @ #18 Oregon (12:30PM PDT, Autzen Stadium, Eugene); Partly Cloudy, 71: Oregon has covered two straight games, including at Fresno. Oklahoma had to recover against a bad Washington team. If the Sooners play like they did against UDub, they'll get clobbered. I like Oregon to win by a touchdown.

Cincinnati +29.5 @ #1 Ohio State (12:00PM EDT, Ohio Stadium, Columbus); Sunny, 80: Cincinnati is another dreadful team. We know they'll lose; it's a question of how many points Ohio State scores. Given that the Bearcats lost to Pitt at home by 18, I think they'll lose by over 30 to the Buckeyes. I hate laying almost 30 points, but the Bearcats are that bad. Take the Buckeyes.

One game I'm not betting this week is Navy +2.5 @ Stanford. If this were any other weak of the season I'd bet on Navy; however, "New" Stanford Stadium is being dedicated this week, and the emotions will be with the Cardinal. I have a hard time seeing Navy winning this week. Given that, the line needs to be over 3 for me to consider betting with the Midshipmen. Can't you wait until Stanford plays at Washington on November 11th? The excitement! The dreadfulness: who will be the worst of the west?
2007 picture
In week 1 I went 2-2 (3-2 if you bet USC). As usual, we'll start off with the Fox Family Picks, and then move on to a couple other interesting games (note that these picks are for entertainment purposes only):

Minnesota (1-0) +8.5 at #22 Cal (0-1) (Memorial Stadium, Berkeley), 4:00pm, TBS; 63, Sunny, may be windy. Cal is coming off a lousy game at Tennessee, and returns home to Memorial Stadium. Minnesota shut out Kent State at Kent State. Cal figures to bounce back, but how bad are the Bears? Conversely, how good is Minnesota? I wouldn't touch this game with a ten-foot pole. I think Cal will win, but it figures to be about a 3-6 point victory. Thus, if you made me bet on this game, I'd take the Gophers.

Miami, OH (0-1) +17 at Purdue (1-0) (Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN), 1:00PM EST; 80, 30% chance of T-Storms. Miami lost an emotional game to Northwestern at home (Randy Walker, the late head coach of Northwestern, was a Miami alumnus) by 14. I don't see them getting up for this game on the road. I don't know if Purdue is a better team than Northwestern, but if the Wildcats can win at Miami by 14, then Purdue should win by at least 17 at home. Take the points.

Rice (0-1) +27.5 at UCLA (1-0) (Rose Bowl, Pasadena), 7:00pm; FSN PT; 75, Sunny. These teams met last year at the Rose Bowl, and UCLA won 63-21. For those who are math deficient, that's a spread of 42. Games will be a little shorter this year, so UCLA figures to win by less. Also, Rice is likely improved over last year. In 2005, they lost at Houston 35-18; this year, at home (which really isn't that much of an advantage; Rice Stadium seats 70,000+, and Houston is their cross-town rival) they lost by 1. I think the spread is reasonable. UCLA has much more talent than Rice, and they should be prepared for the Owls' wish-bone (after all, they have the films from last year). I won't bet this game, but if I did I'd bet on UCLA. Figure a final of 42-10.

Now some other games:

#16 Virginia Tech (1-0) at North Carolina (0-1) +11.5 (Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC); 12:00pm EDT; ESPN; 85, Partly Cloudy. Last week North Carolina lost to a supposedly improved Rutgers 21-16 while the Hokies clobbered outmanned Northeastern. Virginia Tech is by far the better team, and they tend to try to run up the score in early games. While this is the conference opener, and the Tar Heels may be up for the game, I don't see them doing well at all. Last year they lost 30-3; I'd guess a final of 27 - 10. Take the Hokies.

Colorado (0-1) vs Colorado State (1-0) +2.5 (Invesco Field, Denver); 3:00pm MDT; 68, Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. The Buffaloes were embarrassed at home against Montana State last week while the Rams whipped Weber State. Somehow, Colorado is the favorite. I think the Rams have more talent, and are likely the much better team. I expect them to win outright, probably by over a touchdown. Nominally, Colorado State is the "home team" although the game is at a neutral site. Take the Rams.

Stanford (0-1) at San Jose State (0-1) +10.5 (Spartan Stadium, San Jose); 3:00pm PDT; 70, Sunny. As expected, the Cardinal got clobbered at Oregon. Meanwhile, the Spartans lost by 7 at Washington. Now the Huskies are not a good team, but Husky Stadium is never an easy place to play and the Spartans managed to lose by just a touchdown. I think that San Jose State may even win this game (the two teams are about equal in ability). Take the Spartans, get 10.5, and don't be shocked if they win outright.

#24 Texas Tech (1-0) at UTEP (1-0) +7 (Sun Bowl, El Paso), 7:00pm MDT; 80, 30% chance of T-Storm. The Miners won at San Diego State, 34-27. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders had no problems beating SMU 35-3. It's clear that Texas Tech will score quite a few points against UTEP. It's less clear that UTEP will score quite a few points against Texas Tech; the Red Raiders' defense is much better than San Diego State's. Take the road favorite.

We'll see how well I do in week 2.
2007 picture
With college football starting up, I'm starting a new feature: my college football picks. Of course, a disclaimer is in order: these picks are for entertainment purposes only. Now, on with the show:

Fox Family Picks

My family has attended four major colleges: Cal, UCLA, Purdue, and USC (Southern California for the benefit of [info]ronsrants, not South Carolina). I'm quite biased about one of these schools (Cal), and will rarely bet on them.

#9 Cal + 1.5 @ #23 Tennessee, (Neyland Stadium, Knoxville), 2:30pm, ESPN; partly cloudy, mid 70s. Cal has perhaps the best running backs in the country, Marshawn Lynch & Justin Forsett, a good ol, a very good dl, and a coach who knows how to win. As Nolan Dalla pointed out, Tennessee was 0-6 ATS at home last year. I expect Cal to win outright. Two years ago Cal had a similar road opener, at Air Force (which is not an easy place for a road team to play). Cal routed the Eagles. I doubt it will be a rout, but a win like 28 - 20 seems right.

Indiana State @ Purdue: There's no line on this game that I could find. Indiana State is a lower division school.

Utah +3 @ UCLA (Rose Bowl, Pasadena), 4PM PDT; FSN; Sunny, mid 90s. UCLA has a tendency to start very good and finish badly. The Bruins have to rebuild in various places, and I think they're a middle of the pack team in the PAC-10 this year. Utah doesn't impress me, though. Expect a very high-scoring game, with the Bruins winning by 7.

USC @ Arkansas +8 (Reynolds Stadium, Fayetteville, AR), 7:45PM CDT; ESPN; Partly cloudy, mid 70s. Arkansas is picked as the sleeper team in the country. I don't see it. Their defense was rotten last year. If you're returning a whole bunch of starters from a rotten team, that doesn't make you a good team. I think they're going to have a lot of trouble stopping USC. However, USC has had some issues playing to the level of their opponents (not last year, but in prior years). This is a tough road opener, in front of 80,000 or so. I see USC winning, but it could be by 3 or 33. I don't like this game at all for betting.

Now to a couple of other games:

Vanderbilt +26 @ Michigan (Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI), 12:00PM EDT; ESPN; Cloudy, mid 60s. Vanderbilt last year had a tremendous quarterback and...won 4 games. They'll be lucky to win 3 this year. Michigan is better on offense, defense, and special teams. Expect a huge win by the Wolverines.

Stanford +12 @ Oregon (Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR), 12:30PM PDT; abc; Sunny, high 80s. Stanford was a lousy football team at the end of 2005. The Ducks were a good team, and should challenge for the Pac-10 title this year. Autzen Stadium may be the toughest stadium in the Pac-10 for a road team. Oregon should win by at least two touchdowns.

That's it for week 1.
This page was loaded Dec 9th 2009, 5:48 am GMT.