...but Hillary Clinton (aka Billary) won the New Mexico caucus. She got 14 of the 26 delegates. The Santa Fe Reporter has the full details on the fiasco.

Note that Billary will likely get the majority of the superdelegates--indeed, the vast majority of them. So far at least 7 back her while only one backs Obama. That's why I think Billary will be the nominee.

Of course, I voted for Romney and I have a feeling he won't be the Republican nominee....

Coming soon to a courtroom in Tallahassee, Florida, or to Washington, D.C.: Clinton v. Obama. Assume that the race for the Democratic nominee is close (which is very likely) after all the primaries. Perhaps Obama has a slight lead, or perhaps Billary does. Ted Olson, former Solicitor General of the United States (and the attorney who successfully argued Bush v. Gore in the Supreme Court writes about this possibility today in the Wall Street Journal:

"These superdelegates, Byzantine hyper-egalitarian Democratic Party delegate selection formulas, and the fact that many delegates are selected at conventions or by caucuses rather than primaries, combine to offer the distinct possibility that by convention time the candidate leading in the popular vote in the primaries will be trailing in the delegate count.

"How ironic. For over seven years the Democratic Party has fulminated against the Electoral College system that gave George W. Bush the presidency over popular-vote winner Al Gore in 2000. But they have designed a Rube Goldberg nominating process that could easily produce a result much like the Electoral College result in 2000: a winner of the delegate count, and thus the nominee, over the candidate favored by a majority of the party's primary voters."

There's more. We know that Billary will demand that Michigan and Florida's delegations be allowed at the Democratic convention (she won those states handily, of course). What might the Florida Supreme Court do if there's a lawsuit? I'm sure that they would rule that Florida should be counted. And then let a thousand lawsuits bloom:

"We all know full well what could happen next. The array of battle-tested Democratic lawyers who fought for recounts, changes in ballot counting procedures, and even re-votes in Florida courts and the U.S. Supreme Court in 2000 would separate into two camps. Half of them would be relying on the suddenly-respectable Supreme Court Bush v. Gore decision that overturned the Florida courts' post-hoc election rules changes. The other half would be preaching a new-found respect for "federalism" and demanding that the high court leave the Florida court decisions alone.

"Would the U.S. Supreme Court even take the case after having been excoriated for years by liberals for daring to restore order in the Florida vote-counting in 2000? And, would Justices John Paul Stevens, David Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, the dissenters in Bush v. Gore, feel as strongly about not intervening if Sen.Obama was fighting against an effort to change a presidential election by changing the rules after the fact? Will there be a brief filed by Floridians who didn't vote in their state's primary because the party had decided, and the candidates had agreed, that the results wouldn't count?"

As Mr. Olson notes, "This may be one of those déjà vu fantasies that won't happen." But it just might, and Mr. Olson concludes, "If it does happen, I'd be more than happy to loan Sen. Obama the winning briefs that helped secure the election of the legitimate winner of the 2000 election, George W. Bush."

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Patrick Ruffini, a Republican campaign strategist, has projected the Democratic race; the spreadsheet is here. He believes that neither will be able to win enough delegates to clinch the nomination prior to the convention....

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Today was really the true beginning of tax season for me; other than my volunteer work this morning, all taxes. Tomorrow I'll be one of the volunteers at the Orange County Register's tax call-in lines. You can call 714-796-5000 between 5 and 9pm PST and get answers to tax questions on Tuesday, February 12th....

With all the talk about global warming it's time to throw some ice on the subject. Some scientists are becoming a bit worried that we're about to head into an ice age because of the sun. Yes, the article is in a popular magazine and not a scientific journal. But there's now a real possibility that the sun is going to enter into a "lull," which could cause a mini-ice age. Yeah, the sun is only a minor influence....

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"At the moment in news organization tallies, Mr. Obama narrowly leads Mrs. Clinton in tallies of so-called pledged delegates chosen through the primaries and caucuses, about 840 to 830. However, she holds a lead among superdelegates, roughly 200 to 120. Most such delegates have not publicly declared an allegiance yet." The Sun speculates that Obama might win the most delegates in the primaries/caucuses but just barely and not enough to clinch the nomination and that Billary, through the superdelegates, will have enough votes to clinch the nomination. While an Obama spokesman believes that the superdelegates won't violate the will of the people what do you think Billary will till them? "Vote for Obama, he's gotten more support from the people," or, "We've given you all this money over the years. You vote for us or else."

Here's a list of the pledged and unpledged Democratic superdelegates. Note that Billary owes an approximate 2 to 1 lead in these delegates. Given that the Obama campaign is forecasting that they will lead by only 17 delegates at the end of the primaries/caucuses, and that Billary will likely win 2/3 of the superdelegates (giving her +250 or so among those), that will push her over the top.

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Today is a very big day on the Republican side. John McCain addresses CPAC (a gathering of conservatives in Washington, DC). This gives him a chance to shore up the noisiest base of the GOP that is also unhappy with him. If he does well today, he'll have the nomination sewed up by month-end.

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Poker? How I'd love to play thee. Instead, in 12 minutes (9am), it's back to the grind....