Well, I made some predictions here after passage of the UIGEA. Let's take a look at how accurate I've been:

1. With Democrats in control of Congress, the law will not be ignored. I was sort of correct. It's on the books and regulations are being written (albeit slowly--see below).

2. Congress, with the Democrats in control, will not vote to repeal the UIGEA. Correct. Last week there was a test vote in a Congressional committee and it didn't pass. There aren't anywhere near the votes in the House, and even fewer in the Senate.

3. The UIGEA will be enforced. Incomplete. The regulations haven't been finalized yet. However, to say that the UIGEA hasn't impacted poker is nuts.

4. There are more important things for the Justice Dept. to do than the UIGEA. Absolutely correct. But so what.

5. Neteller will leave. I thought Neteller would leave when the regulations hit. Instead, two of their executives decided to visit the US and Neteller ended up leaving a few months earlier than I thought would occur.

Many speculated that Neteller alternatives would pop up, and the loss would be meaningless. This view turned out to be wrong (see below).

6. The regulations would take a while--a long while--to be put into place. Correct. I expect the final regulations would be announced late this year, and implemented in February 2009.

7. Barney Frank can't stop the UIGEA from being implemented. Correct. See #2 above.

8. The WTO will be meaningless in this battle. Correct.

9. A UIGEA repeal can't pass Congress. Correct. See #2 above.

10. Legalization of online gambling will take years of greasing Congress. I stand by this belief--we're likely looking at another five to ten years before this happens.

11. Short-term we're doomed; long-term we will see legalization. I still think this is correct (though we'll have notice as to when the doom switch will be turned on).

12. We don't need to cash out immediately--we'll have notice before the sites vanish. Generally, correct. But some skins of microgaming have closed. I expect more events like this to occur.

13. It will take lots of money and time to reverse the UIGEA. Does anyone doubt this?

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Other thoughts/issues.

1. I bet oscarmc a Bellagio/Mirage buffet that one of a list of 12 individuals would be indicted before BARGE 2008. It looks like I'm going to lose that bet.

2. Online poker has suffered. The pool of new US players has dropped, but Europeans have somewhat filled in. However, online poker on US-facing sites has gotten much more difficult, and many players aren't redepositing. Many players have had to move down in limits.

3. The poker boom has peaked, and we're now on a downswing. But I don't expect things to fall to the level of (say) 1998. Instead, figure 2002-2003 levels is where we'll end up.

4. PartyPoker is in negotiations with the DOJ, and I expect they will come to a settlement later this year. That settlement will involve Party paying a fine for violating the Wire Act and other anti-gambling laws, and paying back taxes; I expect the total settlement to be about $950 million.

The settlement does a number of things from Party's perspective. It frees its largest shareholders from the threat of prosecution (they are US citizens). It may cause the other sites difficulties with US authorities. It probably allows Party to be acquired.

From the US government's perspective the settlement also accomplishes a number of priorities. It classifies online poker as illegal in the US (again, whether or not that's really the case is irrelevant); the government will get favorable publicity. Sure, the online poker-playing population will hate this but consider Joe Sixpack, and when he hears the government received $200 million in fines and $750 million in back taxes I guarantee that the publicity by the MSM will be overwhelmingly positive.

5. Now is not the right time to write another poker book. The time when just about anyone could write a successful poker book has passed.

6. There hasn't been a stream of payment alternatives like Neteller. The sites have eft--at times--but this and their current third party payment processors are the likely targets once the UIGEA regulations come into play. The loss of Neteller has had a huge impact.

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I've probably left off something worth commenting on. Feel free to ask, and I'll append as appropriate.